ACUS11 KWNS 241702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241701=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Areas affected...The ArkLaTex and far southeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...

Valid 241701Z - 241800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts continues across WW316.

DISCUSSION...As of 17 UTC, regional radar analysis shows the ongoing
MCS over southeast OK and the ArkLaTex continues. Some weakening has
been noted with warming cloud tops and a general decrease in line
reflectivity. However, the severe risk likely continues as a
substantial cold pool and weak MCV have formed. As the density
current continues to propagate along the northwest to southeast
oriented baroclinic zone over the lower MS Valley, damaging gusts
will remain possible. Occasional redevelopment along the
southern-most portions of the cluster is expected as it propagate
towards the more unstable air mass along the AR/LA border. Thus, the
damaging wind risk will continue over portions of WW316.

..Lyons.. 05/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MPtGfzGRU_W66wGURFmeQjw9AHdtimDKC-WV6DXh0k4O_OGPxrHbC2YZS6hmzlcOCuJ8ELUF= AZNd-5tV1DmUZKVC9c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34089524 34059472 33849361 34329257 34869181 34879150
34549080 33689088 33099121 32979287 33069438 33659530
34089524=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)