ACUS11 KWNS 282034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282034=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-282130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Colorado...far southwest Kansas...and
the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 342...

Valid 282034Z - 282130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 342 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed in far southeastern Colorado
and the far western Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon, with an
additional cluster of thunderstorms moving from far northwest
Kansas/eastern Colorado due southeast. These thunderstorms will be
capable of all hazards, including tornadoes -- particularly across
southern portions of WW 342 in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms in the Oklahoma Panhandle/southwest
Kansas have developed west of an environment characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture (mixing ratios ~13-14 g/kg), 35-40 kts of
deep-layer shear, and southeasterly surface winds. VAD wind profiles
from KDDC show some low-level curvature of the hodograph that will
support stronger low-level mesocyclones and potential tornado
development, and low-level shear is expected to increase into the
evening with the nocturnal low-level jet around and after sunset.
While convective interactions in the short term lead to some
uncertainty, the expectation is that any isolated/strong supercells
that emerge from the convective clusters will have increased tornado
potential heading into this evening.=20

Further north in eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, a cluster of
convection is moving south-southeastward through WW 342. These
storms will be moving into an increasingly unstable and sheared
environment, though current KGLD VAD wind profiles show mostly
straight-line hodographs that would favor splitting supercell
thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of all hazards, with the
threat increasing as they continue to progress south and east with
time.

..Halbert.. 05/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8avI0lPTpLNRGTlNFa3eY8sWmN3ozRCYPw2vdVrKOM6pMRbvA1KFguyJYvuwvzJcRnWwLhTuG= RaH1gMXsgLkWv2XWiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37530030 37200017 36910012 36750035 36610071 36590131
36630169 36870192 37060213 37160273 37380293 37810281
38330259 38810248 39130247 39380256 39590228 39450165
39200135 38970124 38530100 38120069 37760041 37530030=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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