ACUS11 KWNS 292007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292006=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast New Mexico into West Texas and parts of
the Texas Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 292006Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase across southeast
New Mexico and West Texas later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Moderate instability has developed across West Texas
and into far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Additional
heating and destabilization, combined with increasing ascent ahead
of a southeastward moving shortwave trough, should be sufficient for
storm development later this afternoon along and south of the front
moving south across West Texas. Storms will initially be
supercellular given 45-50 knots of effective shear (per SPC
mesoanalysis). The primary hazard initially will be large hail, with
the potential for hail in excess of 3 inches. Some tornado and
severe wind threat will also exist during the supercell storm mode.
Through time, these supercells may congeal into a southeastward
moving MCS. In addition, the mass of convection across southeast New
Mexico and vicinity may eventually develop a strong enough cold pool
to support a forward propagating MCS as it moves southeast into the
greater instability. As these MCSs combine, the severe wind threat
will increase, particularly as storms move into the Texas Big
Country/Concho Valley later this evening.

..Bentley/Smith.. 05/29/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_crk0vlL2RiWcrR_FectHoutIG99_Dtdcw80lhd_nD5J2D4OzQQaZwOVlQid4ns8eYtIhtvFI= fP8QFv1eoRubZYajFE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33740393 33690201 33380046 33109937 32859897 31819910
30989950 30850031 31680281 32060373 32410415 33740393=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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