ACUS11 KWNS 311732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311732=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-311930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the central Appalachians and Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311732Z - 311930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally damaging gusts and small hail
are possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
southeastward across parts of the central Appalachians -- focused
within the left exit region of a robust midlevel jet streak. Limited boundary-layer moisture (upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints) are
yielding weak buoyancy, however, steep midlevel lapse rates and straight/elongated hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) could
still support transient storm intensification/organization. Given
30-40-kt winds in the lowest 2 km AGL (per VWP data), convective
momentum transport may favor a couple strong to locally damaging
gusts through the afternoon, and small hail will also be possible.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8-zymthKUXiF2YFNpw--0jADs4IKdVNDQybClwfuXWiXTtsyn5RLDOq46o0qPRbRLXFcxkqgm= w7xzde85dZ6eNxgUes$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 36147989 36168147 36438253 36628285 37038298 37608264
37828213 37958129 37958056 37717991 37157923 36437919
36147989=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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