ACUS11 KWNS 021811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021810=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-021945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico and West Texas into the
TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021810Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with a threat
for severe wind. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by
mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broad dryline across the southern High Plains is
starting to sharpen as dewpoints are now into the low 70s across the
eastern Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the low 50s across far
eastern New Mexico. This currently yields around 1000 to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE with some inhibition (per 18Z SPC mesoanalysis). However,
recent satellite trends across eastern New Mexico suggest inhibition
is quickly eroding with thunderstorm development potentially
imminent. Very steep lapse rates in the lowest 5km will be very
favorable for severe wind gusts with any convection that develops.
Storms may pose some large hail threat initially, but with severe
wind gusts preferred, expect expanding outflow and a linear mode to
quickly takeover. Once a line of storms develops across the Texas
Panhandle into West Texas, a broad area of severe wind gusts is
likely along this squall line as it moves east. Wind gusts of 65 to
80 mph are likely with some 90+ mph wind gusts possible.

A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by mid-afternoon
to address this threat.

..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9263QcrhSEp4GSe4laj7JW-t8v5VsgNuFVFcQRaQFqqlmjHXJePE2wVpfZcGxk80_GVRZf5wM= ujd3Y7CjZo5XRplads$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33730411 34230411 35580388 36630309 36900192 37010031
36800000 36049986 34579998 33520016 32740065 32370155
32210270 32240340 32480405 33730411=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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