ACUS11 KWNS 022047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022047=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado northeastward through
southwestern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022047Z - 022245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon and
evening along a cold front across much of central Nebraska and
adjacent areas. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main
threats.

DISCUSSION...A Cu field is developing this afternoon across central
Nebraska to the south of a slowly sagging cold front. Very large
instability is present with temperatures rising into the upper 80s
and low 90s F across the region. Continued boundary-layer mixing
should erode any remaining inhibition, supporting convection
initiating in the next couple of hours. A number of factors should
contribute to quickly amalgamating storms, including widespread
initiation, largely line-parallel (and relatively modest) bulk shear
vectors, and ML LCLs between 1500-2000 m AGL. Large hail will be
possible with the strongest cores, particularly early in individual
storms' lifecycles, with a transition to a more widespread wind
threat likely during the evening. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out amidst possibly complex storm interactions and/or stronger
updrafts interacting with locally enhanced surface vertical
vorticity near the front. A watch is possible this afternoon to
address these threats.

..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cp_itdERxjo5cK5F_dRBTKmfL4fL41XzZx4N23QFVtLB08sb3s4gaXOxz-TclTW_UKIKEyfG= pkX8Qq1my_1Hp-6cYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39960136 40280200 40940209 41290191 41440155 41779997
42379869 43129755 44109656 44689621 44809557 44439505
43579497 42869528 41449637 40529804 39979977 39960136=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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