ACUS11 KWNS 022215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022215=20
MNZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...East-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...

Valid 022215Z - 030015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail are
possible over the next 1-3 hours. The severe threat will likely
become more isolated with eastward extent, however.

DISCUSSION...Convection across much of WW 355 has largely weakened
as it has encountered drier boundary-layer air. However, storms
along the southern edge of the watch, currently west of the Twin
Cities, has maintained some intensity. This is likely due to
stronger surface heating (temperatures are in the low 90s F in the
Twin Cities vicinity). Despite modest surface moisture, steep
mid-level lapse rates still are supporting around 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
With surface dewpoints decreasing to the low 50s towards the
Mississippi River, it is not certain how far east storms will
maintain their intensity. However, the well-mixed boundary layer may
support strong/damaging wind gusts at least in an isolated sense
even as MLCAPE decreases. At this time, no additional watches/watch
extensions are anticipated unless convective trends suggest
otherwise.

..Wendt.. 06/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-r58fHLbbWQCMbGVBpN9-wx7lVYpuT90cgQNRBSuVCje8AaTH_jN2ZPfhYAA28QL90wgYNLTN= TdqapOOhrnotIBqzLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...

LAT...LON 44859526 45229479 45249327 45089287 44759309 44539365
44539487 44579508 44859526=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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