ACUS11 KWNS 030338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030337=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...North-central/northeast OK into
south-central/southeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...

Valid 030337Z - 030530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and isolated hail may spread
east overnight.

DISCUSSION...While some weakening has been noted within parts of an
extensive outflow-driven QLCS, a smaller eastward-moving cluster has
evolved across north-central OK into south-central KS. While CINH
will generally increase with time, the eastward-surging outflow
moving through a strongly unstable environment may continue to
produce occasional stronger updrafts, potentially aided to some
extent by a rather substantial low-level jet. Increasing low-level
flow/shear may allow for localized severe/damaging gusts along the
gust front, though rather weak deep-layer shear may continue to
limit the overall organization of the larger cluster.=20

With time, some potential for sporadic severe/damaging gusts may
spread into northeast OK and southeast KS. Isolated hail will also
be possible. The need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain,
given the current expectation that the severe threat will remain
rather isolated, but observational trends will continue to be
monitored for any increase in storm intensity and organization.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8KUzjWWjbQny6z1QBFPPtGhA0h776K3YUbSBteJUMLYwQetqtvDdQ9Tmv94kOOZU-JnNoiRRr= xvewf_0DB9V9c80uvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35899845 37269781 38759765 38799665 38719599 37789568
37249584 36509619 36109649 35899688 35849737 35769832
35899845=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)