ACUS11 KWNS 032039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032039=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern IL and northwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032039Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next couple of
hours. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 359 may be needed
late this afternoon across parts of eastern IA into northwest IL.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery has slowly occurred across eastern IA
into northwest IL in the wake of morning convection. Temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints from 66-72
F are contributing to increasing MLCAPE. With time, vertical shear
is expected to remain favorable for organized convection as the QLCS
across northern MO track east/northeast with time and additional
convection develops along a cold front oriented across eastern IA.
Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. However,
the VWP at KDVN shows some enlargement of the low-level hodograph,
due in part to a 30-40 kt 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet over
the region, which is also supporting 0-1 km SRH around 100-150
m2/s2. As such, a tornado or two also could occur in addition to
strong gusts. A downstream watch may be needed in the next couple
hours.

..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!417jQjICUyYCJtn8UY8TYRcwjXLVd-nfJbPTjDUwIdzAVAXHVEB0Ynstibg3RF4BoRDj2Ugxy= -q26n5foYXqMxf51OQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40649289 42129151 42459056 42448959 41758928 40558970
40259051 40209125 40489235 40649289=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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