ACUS11 KWNS 040154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040154=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma into far northeast Texas and far
southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 363...

Valid 040154Z - 040400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 363 continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms may persist for
another few hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected with
time. Additional watches are not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe storms, including a
supercell which has recently transitioned into a broader mesovortex,
should continue southeastward along and just north of the Red River.
Given the strength of the mesovortex circulation, it is probable
that this activity will continue despite decreasing buoyancy and
increase MLCIN downstream. Damaging winds and a tornado or two will
be possible in the short term. Longer term trends in the environment
are expected to lead to a weakening trend, however. Given this
expectation, no additional watches are currently anticipated this
evening.

..Wendt.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9DQB_7dqivzzlXMl4lB7hJ1q5MTfahlzXZtng2vfDzyxmvhcEhtRasryo38p6cRy8FuWkMyJW= bw7txgPhMZ6fdva60k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34029708 34199699 34689621 34549479 34299431 33879409
33619422 33499468 33609537 34029708=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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