ACUS11 KWNS 040308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040308=20
TXZ000-040515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Central and North Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...364...

Valid 040308Z - 040515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362, 364
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, isolated large hail, and
perhaps a tornado will continue in parts of Central and North Texas.

DISCUSSION...Earlier discrete convection has evolved into two main
clusters of storms near the DFW metro. The northern cluster is
taking a more easterly track while the southern cluster is moving southeastward. These clusters will pose the greatest severe risk
over the next 1-2 hours. Moderately strong cold pools will support a
risk for damaging winds. With the KFWS VAD showing 0-1 km SRH values
near 200, the risk for a brief tornado will also exist. However,
storm mode and increasing inhibition (gradual given low 70s F
dewpoints) will tend to limit a greater threat. Farther west,
elevated storms have developed just behind the cold front.
Additional storms could form as the front moves south, but it is not
clear if they will be surface based or more than marginally severe.
A few discrete storms have also developed near Waco within the
instability axis. Whether these storms can intensify this far
removed from greater mid-level ascent is not clear. Overall, strong
shear and a buoyant airmass will support a severe threat over the
next few hours despite relatively modest lapse rates noted in
observed soundings within the region tonight.

..Wendt.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40PHXUsSLhQtagWpgu7XL4do9JvE3gdLmLiBH-a0F3wtI8SJKOd-xAmeBDO6U-3ImxLlFk-N8= puk7RHFi9hA9udJVQg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 33119606 31929682 31469720 31239762 31209837 31339913
31809947 32069943 32339863 32539812 33319744 33729704
33679620 33119606=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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