ACUS11 KWNS 041658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041657=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-041900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southeast
Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041657Z - 041900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon with cells/clusters in a broken band, though a severe thunderstorm watch
appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a slow-moving cold front and associated
thicker cloud band, a convergence/differential heating zone is
established from northern IN into southeast Lower MI. Continued
surface heating of a moist boundary layer, beneath relatively poor
midlevel lapse rates, will drive MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this
afternoon with minimal convective inhibition. The zone of stronger
surface heating/destabilization coincides with a belt of 40-50 kt
midlevel flow and similar vertical shear (mainly straight
hodographs). Weak forcing for ascent and minimal convective
inhibition suggest scattered thunderstorm/cluster development early
this afternoon, with storms expected to spread east-northeastward
through late afternoon. Isolated wind damage will be possible with
the strongest storms, especially with any more north-south oriented
line segments, in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates.=20
At this time, the expectation is for strong-severe outflow winds and
damage potential to remain rather isolated, thus a watch is not
currently anticipated.

..Thompson/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9m8ybNSFutTdepL4rh5P-ta7dkU_fRExKFE9eIop3AkDyWod1Q0RS58qTk67RwCk18uRVaxiN= MYNIh3nJzT7cpGrg-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON 42058317 40918457 40438521 40198567 40308604 40798612
41328581 42168470 43818281 43808264 43008252 42058317=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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