ACUS11 KWNS 041835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041835=20
TXZ000-041930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...East central and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041835Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms with isolated wind damage potential
will be possible, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and modified forecast soundings suggest
that convective initiation is underway along and just ahead of a
slow-moving cold front across east central and northeast TX.=20
Surface temperatures are warming into the low-mid 80s F with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, with MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg or greater.=20
Though effective bulk shear suggests some potential for organized
storms, almost all of the stronger flow is above 6 km AGL, with very
small hodographs below 6 km. The relatively weak low-midlevel
vertical shear and warm midlevel temperatures will limit the
potential for large hail, leaving isolated downbursts as the primary
concern. Overall storm intensity and duration appear insufficient
to warrant a watch.

..Thompson/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8c8TX3YWKD4Eif28clWfBc7mUNygDx3SVAaxlNZWkrbXGocyUex2XHDRl5mxl-PxGXrUyDVvI= Jnp6NE32LNcUppwCeA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32299435 31389476 30609563 30299646 30589675 30969646
32479538 33559502 33709481 33569451 33319422 32299435=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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