ACUS11 KWNS 042056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042055=20
TXZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans-Pecos

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042055Z - 042300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be
possible if storms can mature over the Trans-Pecos region this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening boundary-layer cumulus where a stationary front is intersecting the
higher terrain in the TX Trans-Pecos region this afternoon. Isolated
convective initiation is also underway along the TX/MX border. While
weak large-scale ascent and antecedent inhibition cast uncertainty
on storm longevity (especially away from the higher terrain
features), a long/straight hodograph (around 40-50 kt of effective
shear) and moderate-strong buoyancy will conditionally support a discrete/semi-discrete supercell or two capable of producing large
hail and locally severe gusts. Given the conditional and potentially
localized nature of the threat, a watch is not expected.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mxrvEQLfInxNYtJermDFDK-SL3ySqW37UZxduobAA-u4gGu8DjIZkaA7YZRUkjzQcVEuvfEo= hfVqZ7zqZr1S6QJg14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 30100454 30330463 30560459 30810429 30860403 30790371
30450325 29620273 29290278 28960310 29000350 29340414
30100454=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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