ACUS11 KWNS 042238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042238=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-050045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of central and northeastern New Mexico into
the western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042238Z - 050045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk
for marginally severe hail and wind while spreading east of the
higher terrain during the next few hours, with potential to become
better organized along with increasing risk of severe weather as it
approaches the Texas state border vicinity north of Clovis toward
7-9 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization,
aided by differential thermal advection, appears to have contributed
to a clustering of strong thunderstorm development now centered
around the Albuquerque NM vicinity. Embedded within favorably
sheared west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30
kt, this activity appears likely to advect east of the higher
terrain, where thermodynamic profiles appear characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates with modestly deep boundary-layer
mixing and weak CAPE. This environment may be conducive to a
continuing risk for a couple of strong downbursts, aided by
evaporative cooling and melting.=20=20

Toward 01-03Z, as convection approaches the Texas state border
vicinity near/north and northeast of the Clovis and Tucumcari
vicinities, there does appear potential for storms to acquire
updraft inflow of better boundary-layer moisture and instability.=20
If/when it does, this may be accompanied by increasing organization
and potential to produce severe hail and wind, perhaps including
supercell structures accompanied by a risk for a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WvopJakMviOU1t_GDSHNKpoo7iQiocUAC3umTB9UUAYvDYSmTMzoEe8xi9edaNmgA9a3Fjt6= BbOVH3f31ud9Y_rPzs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36120354 36100218 35080162 34280267 34330360 34520462
34530553 34710626 35240608 35720580 36140472 36120354=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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