ACUS11 KWNS 050447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050447=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-050615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...

Valid 050447Z - 050615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm Watch 365 is being locally extended in
time for an hour or two. However, a new severe weather watch is not anticipated, with stronger storms expected to continue to wane in
intensity through 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Coldest cloud tops have recently warmed, but vigorous
thunderstorm development continues. This appears generally focused
along and just to the cool side of consolidating convective outflow,
south of a meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation now migrating south
through east of the Dalhart vicinity.=20=20

Based on the latest objective analysis, peak boundary-layer
instability within lee surface troughing near the Texas/New Mexico
state border vicinity is tending to stabilize, and guidance suggests
little substantive destabilization of an initially stable boundary
layer eastward across the remainder of the Panhandle and South
Plains overnight. As updraft inflow continues to become less
unstable, weakening of convection appears likely to result in
diminishing potential for severe hail and wind through 06-07Z.

..Kerr.. 06/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Keq8lHPaIFiQP3wxXzOa134aJGbMOSng29PthTKu4BDs_acG1tNAfkZYU11u8nOHWaX0ECzQ= hrSNm5Fkk89x-ejMAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35370162 35360013 34280131 34490348 35040224 35370162=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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