ACUS11 KWNS 062131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062130=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO...northeast NM...OK/northern TX
Panhandle...far southwest KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

Valid 062130Z - 062300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell threat will increase into this evening, with
a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed across far southeast CO late
this afternoon, with additional storm development noted across the
Raton Mesa into northeast NM. Moderate buoyancy and strong
deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection into
this evening, and development of additional supercells is possible.
In the short term, relatively long and straight hodographs will
favor very large hail potential as supercells become established,
along with some threat for localized severe gusts. Increasing moisture/instability with southeastward extent, and an eventual
increase in low-level flow/shear this evening, will also support a
tornado threat.

In order to address these threats, watch issuance is likely into
parts of northeast NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, and possibly far
southwest KS.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9CbLNU9A4y_1EryuqVxOe17-DTz10O0icp2ggTOBs72BSfcooIz0u9M4uXprHEOx9vCCHm1Xv= kSzjHcDh7jWxDaaNjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37090434 37420259 37340145 36760060 36210059 35840108
35690200 35670277 35720361 35880417 36030453 36280461
37090434=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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