ACUS11 KWNS 062132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062131=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-062300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia to southeast
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062131Z - 062300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will persist across southern
portions of the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon.
Strong wind gusts are the main threat, though an instance of large
hail could occur.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular storm clusters have developed in
a nebulously forced regime, and have been driven primarily by strong
surface heating/mixing of the boundary layer, as well as orographic
lift. Given robust boundary layer mixing, 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates are boosting MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg in spots. With up to 35 kts
of effective bulk shear in place, the aforementioned buoyancy is
promoting occasionally organized, strong storms with a history of
damaging gusts. Strong wind gust potential should continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, until nocturnal cooling dampens the
steep low-level lapse rates in place. Given organized multicellular
modes, an instance or two of hail also cannot be ruled out. However,
the overall severe threat should remain isolated.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dBYKTA4imxnjReMYCJjqb8avWCbiMBt67OUgVFRH80EqO8kvyX2qLldIxY3oltgN-Iw1hFP0= wml4e5ne-A5qQrFJos$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36757946 38217929 39037907 39517864 39367792 38667720
37947721 37337735 36817768 36647858 36757946=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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