ACUS11 KWNS 062218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062218=20
TXZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062218Z - 062345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible into early
evening, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening across parts of the TX Trans-Pecos
region late this afternoon, with recent storm development west of
Fort Stockton. While large-scale ascent is nebulous, additional
storm development will be possible within a very warm/moist and
weakly capped environment. Deep-layer flow is somewhat weaker
compared to areas farther north, but 30-40 kt of effective shear and
moderate to strong buoyancy could support isolated supercell
development into this evening.=20

Large to very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany
any established supercell into this evening. A tornado also cannot
be ruled out, especially if any supercells are able to persist and
move eastward into higher-quality low-level moisture. Watch issuance
is possible if trends support increasing coverage of an organized
severe threat into the early evening.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5cUoBZ_ForVpwA50ihuOpcOXuxShsI5pgwp-RtYiUz3Th-fOiWauxdkDw-gXhFRMCOlDeCDCK= WX-QaOsYqPuJxwyNZg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31950446 31970366 31990265 31980219 31870196 31540193
30690221 29910281 29910347 30060391 30130421 30530465
31370472 31790478 31950446=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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