ACUS11 KWNS 071806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071806=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-072030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast TN northern/central GA...and far
western NC/SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071806Z - 072030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will spread eastward into
the area later this afternoon into the evening. A watch is likely
for parts of the area by 19Z.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is gradually organizing over northwestern AL
this afternoon, and is expected to continue tracking eastward into
southeastern TN, northern/central GA, and eventually the western
Carolinas later this afternoon into the evening. The air mass ahead
of these storms continues to diurnally destabilize, with upwards of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected (highest over northern/central GA).
This, coupled with 30-40 kt of westerly effective shear, should
support the maintenance of the MCS along/south an east/west-oriented instability gradient. While exact evolution of this system is
somewhat uncertain (especially with eastward extent), current
thinking is that the risk of scattered damaging wind gusts will
overspread the area into this evening. A watch is likely for parts
of the area by 19Z.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JfbXoQG0Rtv87_YbcJOZElP9tov6QbBIHvy8BqB5jupcd1QGT696cUFz5iY2bdr3SspsN_Up= cnlVIA5VKO8KGHMe2k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...

LAT...LON 33938543 35228554 35878526 36048465 36078410 35938342
35678308 35218291 34658287 33998286 33358302 32948339
32848418 32898475 33148531 33938543=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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