ACUS11 KWNS 071831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071831=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA and eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071831Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of strong/severe storms capable of producing
locally damaging wind gusts should increase in the 19-22Z time
frame. It is uncertain if the threat will warrant a watch, though
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Cellular convection is gradually deepening along a weak
low-level confluence zone extending southwestward from southeastern
VA into central NC this afternoon -- as it encounters an
increasingly unstable air mass. While generally weak forcing for
ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective evolution, a belt of
30-40-kt midlevel westerly flow and moderate-strong surface-based
instability could support a gradual uptick in convective intensity
and organization as storms track eastward through the afternoon into
early evening. The primary concern would be locally damaging wind
gusts with any small, loosely organized clusters that can evolve. Is
it unclear if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though
convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wriqOR04FXQnmAHzDqsxgHh6cfJ0_BvlsgXb2implqVvc1xUC9_c3znBOLGAkjR-ATHPQ1JI= ql3PIRKCbj-Sfbjh-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 36547946 37647727 37757668 37707632 37557598 37397568
36677564 35727546 35047580 34467666 33987771 33987809
35117998 35398014 35818011 36217984 36547946=20


=3D =3D =3D
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