ACUS11 KWNS 072002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072002=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...Northeastern South
Dakota...and Northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072002Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts and marginally severe hail reports are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern North
Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. A
watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and RAP analyses show a strong
shortwave trough moving southeastward out of Canada and into the
northern Plains, and this in tandem with a surface cold front has
provided the lift for convective development across parts of central
North Dakota. Ahead of this front, the air mass is cut off from the
rich low-level moisture by convection to the south, and as such,
surface dewpoints across the region are generally in the low to mid
50s F. Large-scale lift has resulted in enough mid-level cooling for
a narrow CAPE axis along the front, and this should continue to
track eastward with the mid-level trough this afternoon and evening.


Despite the lackluster low-level flow noted on regional VWPs, this
relatively dry boundary layer may result in a few strong-severe
gusts, particularly as storms cluster and cold pools merge with
time. Additionally, given a deep CAPE profile, modest mid-level
lapse rates, and weak low-level shear due to veered surface flow, a
few marginally severe hail reports are possible with the initial
activity. The hail threat is expected to gradually decrease with
time. Due to the expected sparse coverage of severe wind and hail, a
watch is not anticipated.

..Supinie/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8QuLGZL0OrUjwCW2EdzHO_oDbgFZmenEnBUHXzKhyY_GDBhPvgk-8-dclPyscza1scRvZiRnc= FMiyXNtaHO8SxRftp0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46450051 48849874 49079813 49109611 47389595 45909701
45479906 45700024 46450051=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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