ACUS11 KWNS 072039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072039=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-072145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern NM into the far western TX/OK
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 072039Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk, including isolated large hail and locally
severe gusts, could spread southeastward into this evening. The area
is being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has recently intensified over
the Raton Mesa. Ahead of this storm, visible satellite imagery shows
a band of shallow cumulus extending west-northwestward from the TX
Panhandle -- which generally highlights the lower/middle 60s
dewpoints and related moderate surface-based instability. If this
isolated storm can persist southeastward through this corridor, a
long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear) would support
one or more discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and
locally severe gusts. The area is being monitored for a possible
watch.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5GRi0kJK1fjJBolv7zI_9T1qPdqR9uWxjm5T6wZD6OypPYTGbml66FSgETjHPrJO9ATCbD6OM= 2zWpwCl9F1HJvjIlH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36140422 36450436 36750433 36940404 36990376 36920325
36740283 36450237 36010201 35660198 35280233 35330303
36140422=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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