ACUS11 KWNS 072042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072041=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072041Z - 072245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and instances of marginally severe
hail are possible across portions of eastern Missouri and southern
Illinois this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is currently centered northwest of Columbia, MO
with some convection ongoing along a trailing surface boundary to
the south. Clouds have cleared to the south of the vortex with some
heating and modification of the earlier outflow from convection
across the Mid-South. As such, a pocket of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE has
developed in the region along with strong deep-layer shear. RAP
forecast soundings show a warm nose around 750 mb, which has
generally suppressed convective development away from surface
boundaries. Given strong flow aloft, some damaging gusts are
possible with this activity if downdrafts are strong enough to
transfer that momentum to the surface, though this may be inhibited
by the aforementioned warm nose aloft and generally poor low-level
lapse rates. Some marginally severe hail is also possible given
straight hodographs with the cellular activity, though poor
mid-level lapse rates (6 C/km per mesoanalysis) may limit the
overall hail potential.

..Supinie/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_oZfjzhsrS7yYnUbaDMYVIB8KAG0xfi_GkLhWJnEbEL0s2hlI1hfhohxmA0qZk_Ru5RVxdAE4= ndscptbPzU82ZD90f4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37459169 37699276 38659270 39199190 39419123 39479088
39389036 39048965 38568931 38028923 37558978 37459081
37459169=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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