ACUS11 KWNS 072129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072129=20
TXZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072129Z - 072300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing off the Davis Mountains
and Southwest TX may pose a risk for isolated hail and damaging
gusts.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed incipient updrafts over the eastern Davis Mountains and Rio
Grande Valley were steadily deepening. As afternoon heating and weak
low-level upslope flow continues, these updrafts may continue to
mature. The environment is broadly favorable for severe storms with
moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could
support supercell structures capable of isolated hail. The well
mixed low-level air mass (surface temps near 100 F) may also support
damaging gusts with the stronger storms.

Confidence in sustained deep convection is not particularly high as
forcing for ascent is weak. Some CAM guidance suggests one or two
more organized storms may eventually evolve and persist into the
evening before weakening after dark. While the overall storm
evolution is uncertain, some local severe risk exists. The low storm
coverage and expected decrease in severe potential after sunset
suggests a WW is not needed, but convective trends will continue to
be monitored given the broadly favorable environment.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!610za5plSIZtuznjrhNJDbX9X97DPhVbC3zUuWVp0V_4uVO52GOjit2Na9l4Vt3XjHU3gIlxX= PMUteL_JI9pQG9sxIU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30330169 31060177 31400251 30790379 29180423 28910316
29240278 29870201 30330169=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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