ACUS11 KWNS 072238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072238=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-080015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast TN into northeast GA and parts of the
western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

Valid 072238Z - 080015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread eastward this evening.
Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with a history of wind damage is
moving eastward across northern GA and vicinity early this evening.
Recent measured gusts have generally been in the 40-48 kt range, and
this system will likely remain capable of producing wind damage in
the short term as it moves into northeast GA and western NC.=20

While this MCS does not appear quite as intense as earlier today,
the system still has a substantial cold pool and has retained its
fast forward motion at generally 40-45 kt. Moderate downstream
buoyancy and earlier strong diurnal heating may continue to support
a damaging-wind threat as this MCS moves eastward this evening,
eventually approaching the eastern edge of WW 386. Eventual
weakening is expected later tonight with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization, but the wind-damage threat may remain
sufficiently organized to support downstream watch issuance in the
next hour.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4juX9O2MxTrULa6zQFfm-vPD7hCE55UsTk_A1J8chFPRlMzrxuo97yOkQmE6NFvAHdUyVjAbB= xseGXGxhfZ47atNC08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 35538400 35778284 35608223 35108179 34648152 34098128
33398132 32928165 32918251 32968315 33058364 33228410
33928399 34668367 35538400=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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