ACUS11 KWNS 080237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080237=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern
Texas...southern Arkansas...northern Mississippi and adjacent
southwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...

Valid 080237Z - 080430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development
continues and probably will persist through late evening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development, including a couple of supercells, is ongoing, generally
focused along a southward progressing near-surface confluence zone.=20 Objective analysis suggests that inhibition for the seasonably moist
boundary layer has increased some, with the onset of surface
cooling, but stronger cells are likely still being maintained by
inflow into updrafts of air characterized by CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
=20

With subtle mid-level height falls slowly shifting southward across
the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss vicinities through late evening, at
least widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm development probably
will be maintained another several hours. Probabilities for
continuing isolated supercell development, with potential for a
small upscale growing cluster, might be highest from the Oxford
toward Columbus MS vicinities, where clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs are largest, along the remnant trailing flank of an
outflow boundary.

..Kerr.. 06/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5aNOVqUiObdoRSALxP2fGkf3OlOOt2eeUAh5tTzWGXRJurhpoDtTCtaYFJBpg4NcaPtC3vfJX= HH7lxmKIxy_SKPNbtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34709217 34928876 33158841 33199217 33199371 34269588
34709217=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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