ACUS11 KWNS 080248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080248=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-080415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast NM into parts of the TX Panhandle and
South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

Valid 080248Z - 080415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms could spread
southeastward late tonight.

DISCUSSION...A supercell moving into the western TX Panhandle has
recently produced reports of 2+ inch hail, with another cluster of
strong to occasionally severe storms ongoing across northeast NM.
While low-level moisture and instability increase downstream of
these storms, increasing CINH with time creates uncertainty
regarding the longevity of the ongoing supercells. Some 00Z CAM
guidance depicts an isolated supercell threat into late tonight, and
an evolving low-level warm advection regime may help to maintain
ongoing storms or develop new cells later tonight.=20

Effective shear will continue to be sufficient for supercells, even
if convection becomes slightly elevated, and an isolated severe
threat may spread southeastward with time later tonight. Given the
isolated nature of the ongoing threat, the need for additional watch
issuance in uncertain, but trends will continue to be monitored for
an uptick in severe potential downstream of ongoing convection.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7t7TpDic4pUOJccCNOiLK6ZdOm3h9XX4RDmjLU7HQIIT2ssFNy0eqrP2McCZQDRDF8fFm3Vr0= yvpIJrKScL79rr8CHA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36890452 36830376 35820228 34680112 34050139 34020198
34220270 34600296 35380338 35660354 36400441 36890452=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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